MLS xG analysis and charts through Week 10

With the rise of advanced analytics in soccer, expected goals (xG) has become a go-to metric for examining the quality of both clubs and individual players beyond base accumulation stats (goals, assists, etc.).

Inspired by Ben Mayhew of Experimental 3-6-1, who utilizes similar statistics for the English Football League, the below table and charts are an examination of the attacking, defensive and overall quality of MLS clubs, regularly updated throughout the 2019 season.

All clubs have played between 8-11 matches so far in 2019, comprising between a quarter and a third of the full season slate. The trends established in earlier editions of these charts are starting to cement themselves, though a few teams have managed to buck themselves out of early ruts. These trends are still reversible with a change in form, but if continued at this point could cement a club’s fortunes as the season progresses.

Some items of note:

• LAFC have been utterly dominant on every front. They control shot dominance in their matches at almost a 2:1 advantage, they score frequently and efficiently while holding opponents to few shots and requiring even more before conceding. Bob Bradley’s side have been as good as advertised, and their xGD lines up fairly well with their actual GD, indicating that it isn’t just luck, they really are this good.
• Surprisingly, Atlanta United’s metrics show them in a very favorable light despite an incredibly slow start to the season. The defending champs have been a bit unlucky, with their actual GD about two below their xGD. Where they’ve lacked has been efficiency, giving up goals on far too few of shots (despite only allowing a few shots per game) and taking nearly 14 shots to score a goal, wasting plentiful opportunities (shooting as often as anyone aside from LAFC). The metrics indicate a turnaround could be coming and that the results haven’t followed the quality of play.
• Toronto FC have rebounded to high form, driven entirely by efficiency. The Reds take just over four shots to score each goal and take roughly 12 per match, a good ratio by any standard. The defense has been shakier, mostly avoiding the issue, but overall TFC are rightly placed among the league’s better clubs.
• Three most lucky clubs (based on GD-xGD, i.e. how much better their GD is vs. their xGD)
  • Seattle Sounders FC (9.60)
  • Toronto FC (6.04)
  • Philadelphia Union (5.92)
• Three most unlucky clubs (based on GD-xGD, i.e. how much worse their GD is vs. their xGD)
  • New England Revolution (-11.01)
  • Orlando City SC (-5.53)
  • Colorado Rapids (-4.83)

All xG totals are sourced from American Soccer Analysis’ xG Interactive Tables

Here is a small glossary of the terms for clarity:

GP – Games Played
ShtF – Shots For
ShtA – Shots Against
GF – Goals For
GA – Goals Against
GD – Goal Differential
xGF – Expected Goals For
xGA – Expected Goals Against
xGD – Expected Goal Differential
GD-xGD – Goal Differential minus Expected Goal Differential
ShtF/g – Shots For per Game
ShtA/g – Shots Against per Game
GF/g – Goals For per Game
GA/g – Goals Against per Game
GD/g – Goal Differential per Game
xGF/g – Expected Goals For per Game
xGA/g – Expected Goals Against per Game
xGD/g – Expected Goal Differential per Game
ShtF/GF – Shots For per Goal For
ShtA/GA – Shots Against per Goal Against

Follow Colton on Twitter: @cjcoreschi.

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