MLS xG analysis and charts through Week 27

With the rise of advanced analytics in soccer, expected goals (xG) has become a go-to metric for examining the quality of both clubs and individual players beyond base accumulation stats (goals, assists, etc.).

Inspired by Ben Mayhew of Experimental 3-6-1, who utilizes similar statistics for the English Football League, the below table and charts are an examination of the attacking, defensive and overall quality of MLS clubs, regularly updated throughout the 2019 season.

All clubs have played about 30 matches so far in 2019 through Week 27, entering the final stretch prior to the playoffs. Teams are largely who they are, though it isn’t too late for some late-season surges and struggles (LAFC the past few games, anyone?)

Some items of note:

• FC Cincinnati knew they were likely in for a rough time in their first season. Aside from Atlanta United FC and LAFC, most expansion teams struggle in year one, and Cincinnati finds itself firmly in that camp as among one of the worst sides ever fielded in MLS. Ranking as the worst or near worst on all four charts, Cincinnati give up goals at an astounding clip — one every six shots faced — and give up an astounding number of shots at nearly 14.5 per game. You can see how that’s an ill-advised combination. The offense has been no better, shooting rarely and scoring even more so. Maybe 2020 will bring better things to the Stabby Lions — at least Cincinnati sports fans are used to the disappointment by now.
• The New York Red Bulls have been far from their usually dominant selves. In fact, they’ve been arguably the most average team in the league based on our charts at this point. The club find themselves near the crosshairs of league-average by nearly every metric, except maybe slightly less than average defensively. The result? A very rare struggle to stay above the playoff line and a 12-12-5 record – the definition of .500 ball. Still, the Red Bulls sit four points clear of the Montreal Impact with a game in hand and will likely qualify, leaving the cries of “Armas Out” left wanting. With their track record of regular season success followed by postseason failure, maybe a middling regular season will portend better things come playoff time.
• The top of the Eastern Conference is a fascinating race between NYCFC, the Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC. While Philadelphia is slightly worse on defense than the other two, Atlanta is slightly less efficient on offense, and NYCFC isn’t really clearly the best in any category, these three teams are seemingly very evenly matched on paper. NYCFC holds a slight advantage – two points clear of the Union with a game in hand and five points clear of Atlanta – there’s enough games left to be played that any of these three could end up atop the Eastern Conference. With Atlanta already in next year’s CONCACAF Champions League via the U.S. Open Cup, the better finisher between NYCFC and the Union will earn the Eastern Conference berth, giving each team additional motivation. NYCFC play both clubs in the final few weeks, and they and the Union have more difficult schedules than Atlanta, making this a very interesting final few weeks.
• Three luckiest clubs (based on GD-xGD, i.e. how much better their GD is vs. their xGD)
  • D.C. United (+16.8)
  • LAFC (+13.1)
  • NYCFC (+8.1)
• Three unluckiest clubs (based on GD-xGD, i.e. how much worse their GD is vs. their xGD)
  • FC Cincinnati (-23.3)
  • Chicago Fire (-12.6)
  • Montreal Impact (-11.5)

All xG totals are sourced from American Soccer Analysis’ xG Interactive Tables.

Here is a small glossary of the terms for clarity:

GP – Games Played
ShtF – Shots For
ShtA – Shots Against
GF – Goals For
GA – Goals Against
GD – Goal Differential
xGF – Expected Goals For
xGA – Expected Goals Against
xGD – Expected Goal Differential
GD-xGD – Goal Differential minus Expected Goal Differential
ShtF/g – Shots For per Game
ShtA/g – Shots Against per Game
GF/g – Goals For per Game
GA/g – Goals Against per Game
GD/g – Goal Differential per Game
xGF/g – Expected Goals For per Game
xGA/g – Expected Goals Against per Game
xGD/g – Expected Goal Differential per Game
ShtF/GF – Shots For per Goal For
ShtA/GA – Shots Against per Goal Against

Follow Colton on Twitter: @cjcoreschi.

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