Opinion: Avoid betting on Champions League group stage

Football fans should be happy that the UEFA Champions League is back on track. European football brightness is always great to watch, and even more so during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Although the Champions League is an excellent option for sports gamblers, keep your money out of the group stage.

Online gambling offers specific options with soccer matches: handicaps, future scorers, double opportunities, number of corner kicks, exact results, goal lines, and more. However, the first phase of the UCL is not as reliable as you might think. Diverse factors illustrate that the “mighty” clubs understand that going through the group stages is just a formality. Winning six-straight matches is not fundamental anymore; the real level of the tournament begins in the second or even third round of the tournament, where the parity of the matches increases.

So, why is it important to keep your money out of the UCL group stage?

1. The greatest teams will not perform at their highest level.

Tottenham dropping points in Greece. Chelsea losing at home against a broken Valencia. Inter incapable of beating Slavia Prague at home. Liverpool not scoring at Napoli. Lyon and Leverkusen suffering against Russian clubs at home. It was an unpredictable beginning for the solid clubs, and mostly because it doesn’t matter who qualifies first or second.

A poor performance in away matches won’t matter if the squad rescues a point. Points dropped won’t keep the super clubs away from the second round. Tottenham reached the final after finishing second in Group B, and Liverpool achieved the championship while advancing with nine points to the next round behind PSG. In the previous edition, Real Madrid conquered the tournament after advancing in second place. In fact, the team that got the most points in the last UCL edition was Porto with 16.

2. The money line is expensive.

Barcelona, Real Madrid, Liverpool, PSG, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Juventus, Tottenham and Napoli will have a high moneyline at home. For $100 on a straight bet, there might be a $30 earning. And the possibility of winning a three- or four-selection parlay is low. The odds of winning a parlay of four favorites is around 8 or 9%, mathematician Luis Felipe Jacobo told Soc Takes.

3. Goal difference

This might be the best choice that you’ll have, accepting a handicap that lays one or two goals on the favorite. The risk is worth it and the line won’t be as expensive as just putting money on Manchester City. Although, we need to understand that not every team will fulfill the goal spread. Inter didn’t win by two goals against a lower-level rival. Just Bayern, Ajax, PSG and Manchester City did it, and I’m not counting on FC Salzburg because it might not advance to the second round of the competition. Betting the goal spread still poses a great risk in the UCL group stage

4. Qualified teams will leave points.

There might not be many — or any — surprises. PSG, Real Madrid, Tottenham, Bayern, Manchester City, Juventus, Atletico, Napoli and Liverpool will qualify for the next round without a problem. This means that they’ll play their last matches with a team full of substitutes, and that could impact the results.

Let’s be honest, the magic of the Champions League begins in the second round — so should the flow of money.

Follow Luis on Twitter: @LFulloa.

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