Preview: Nashville SC hosts Indy Eleven with spot in conference final on line
Nashville SC and the Indy Eleven will square off Saturday with a spot in the Eastern Conference final on the line. To preview the match, I enlisted the help of For Club and Country‘s Tim Sullivan. We asked each other six questions to find out what might transpire in this weekend’s USL Championship playoffs fixture.
NASHVILLE SC
Kevin Johnston: What type of shape do you expect Nashville to come out in?
Tim Sullivan: I expect they’ll stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s been the primary option for the past several matches (and was successful last time around against Indy). Gary Smith likes the way the wingers can keep Indy’s wingbacks pinned too deep in their own defensive end to be major offensive contributors, and there’s been some serious developing chemistry since they’ve gone to primarily using that formation. As a bonus, there are a couple personnel groupings that let NSC shift into the 3-5-2 without having to sub.
KJ: How close to full strength will Nashville be? Is the team dealing with any significant injuries?
TS: Aside from midfielder and captain Michael Reed – who’s out for the season after a horrific broken leg against Hartford earlier this year – most of the injuries are minor deals. Striker Cameron Lancaster has been in-and-out of the lineup for the past several weeks, and if I had to guess, he’ll be on the bench but unused. Defender/midfielder Ken Tribbett has dealt with a calf injury lately, but was in the squad for the Charleston match last weekend (and given that he’s versatile enough to contribute at multiple positions, is certain to be in the 18 if he’s available). No starter-type players are out – Tribbett was a fixture earlier in the year, but his injury has seen others take over his role – or anyone who has contributed lately, but certainly those are talented guys to be missing or have at less than 100%.
KJ: Which players have been the most instrumental to Nashville’s strong finish to the regular season and fine start to the playoffs?
TS: The season totally turned on a dime when Nashville signed center backs Jimmy Ockford and Forrest Lasso on loan. A defense that was just OK prior to that suddenly became lockdown, turning NSC from a decent team into an extremely good one. They’re important pieces in the middle defensively, and have each made some offensive contributions (unsurprisingly, mostly on set pieces) lately, too. The other big one is MLS-bound striker Daniel Rios, who finished second in the Golden Boot race. He had a serious dry spell from late August through early October (just one goal in nine games), but had a brace in the regular-season finale against Atlanta United 2, and added one against Charleston last weekend. If he’s on, he’s one of the best players in USL. If he’s not, he’s still willing to do the dirty work defensively, which may not be the case for every slumping striker.
KJ: What is NSC’s biggest weakness?
TS: The biggest weakness if probably defensive set pieces. Even those have been minimal with the team’s strong run to end the regular season, but it has long seemed like NSC is susceptible on corners and free kicks. As good as keeper Matt Pickens is, he tends to have communication problems on those plays, and especially if the initial service is cleared but stays in the defensive end, NSC’s players can get lost in the scramble.
KJ: Tactically, what does NSC do that might pose the greatest threat to Indy?
TS: I think Nashville’s ability to play in the offensive wings, and keep play wide and deep is trouble for Indy. That’s not necessarily because it results in goal-after-goal (wingers Alan Winn and Kharlton Belmar each have four combined goals/assists on the year), but more because it prevents Indy from finding rhythm offensively by pushing their wide midfielders into the attack. The more Nashville can pin Indy in their own end, the less worried Gary Smith is about how the Eleven are going to generate offensive chances. From that point, there’s faith that whipping in crosses – low-percentage a play though it may be – can find some gold for Nashville.
KJ: What type of game flow do you expect and what’s your final scoreline prediction?
TS: This should end up more like the game at Lucas Oil than at Nissan Stadium (not least of which because the pitch size is going to be more like the narrow feel in Indy). It should be a cagey, back-and-forth flow, but not with a ton of offensive chances for either team — whereas the previous game in Nashville saw NSC find ways to open up the field. It should be a low-scoring one, but with the improved Nashville defense and Rios seeming to find recent form, I’ll take a 1-0 score in favor of Nashville.
INDY ELEVEN
Tim Sullivan: What happened during Indy’s late-season swoon that saw the Eleven drop from a strong grip on first place to giving up the games in-hand to fall to third? Have those problems been eliminated with the strong three-game regular-season finish and a win against NYRB II in the first playoff game?
Kevin Johnston: A string of road games and congested schedule were the two main root causes of the late-season swoon. Indy was a decent road team for the first month or two of the season, then really struggled away from Lucas Oil the rest of the way. The Eleven seemingly had a game or more in hand on nearly the entire Eastern Conference until fall rolled around, when the schedule finally caught up to them and the lack of adequate rest affected their performances. Red cards also played a factor, as the team earned three across a four-match stretch in September, all on the road. Besides the sending offs themselves, having key players unavailable for the next game during the grueling part of the schedule certainly didn’t help either.
TS: Martin Rennie’s team has been strong defensively all year, but has struggled to consistently create offense. What needs to go right for the Eleven to put together a solid performance on O?
KJ: For Indy to produce offensively, its two best players, Tyler Pasher and Ayoze, need to show up. Indy also gets a spark when Dane Kelly turns in a quality shift. When Pasher and Ayoze both bring it, Indy can be extremely dangerous going forward. When those guys aren’t scoring and creating, the rest of the offense struggles to pick up the slack. Kelly has been streaky all season, but seems to have found his form in the fall. All three will need to be at their best Saturday if Indy hopes to advance.
TS: I expected a huge year for Thomas Enevoldsen, and that obviously didn’t happen. What went wrong to prevent such a solid player from finding success in Indy? Who has stepped up since he left?
KJ: Rennie’s system isn’t conducive to central playmakers flourishing. Enevoldsen doesn’t have the speed of a winger. He isn’t a true No. 9 either. He also isn’t a true No. 10. So, what exactly is he? He’s really a prototypical second striker in my opinion, a guy who’s mostly a forward but also possesses some of the playmaking qualities of a No. 10. Rennie never uses a traditional No. 10 — a primary chance creator stationed high up the pitch centrally — ever. The same thing happened with Zach Steinberger last season, a player with similar abilities to Enevoldsen. Steinberger struggled to crack the rotation and was eventually loaned out. It’s the exact same story with Enevoldsen. Rennie has an obsession with central defensive midfielders; you’ll likely see three of them in Indy’s starting XI Saturday. It’s also kind of the reason that Ilija Ilic hasn’t really flourished this season and didn’t even see the pitch in Indy’s win over Red Bulls II. Ilic’s skill set kind of puts him in the same boat with Enevoldsen and Steinberger. Unfortunately for those guys, being that type of player is not a good thing on a Martin Rennie roster.
TS: Lucas Oil was a fortress this year, but Indy was mediocre on the road. What was behind that difference? Is it something that could play to Nashville’s advantage in this one?
KJ: The environment at Lucas Oil can be hard for visiting sides to navigate. The turf, while high quality by NFL standards, isn’t ideal for soccer. The football lines that Indianapolis’ Capital Improvement Board refuses to “green out” can also cause problems with spacial awareness. Of course, Indy’s solid attendance creates a raucous atmosphere as well, and the team just doesn’t seem to get up as much for away matches. It’s a factor that absolutely could come into play Saturday; the Eleven simply haven’t been very competitive on the road since the spring.
TS: How is Indy’s 3-4-3 shape going to defend Nashville?
KJ: Over the course of the season, Rennie evolved from a 3-4-2-1 to what is now a 3-5-2. It’s very stout in the middle of the park with big bodies like Paddy Barrett and Karl Ouimette in the back line, and essentially three CMs sitting in front of the back three shielding them. My guess is that Nashville will try to attack from the outside in, which’ll require wingbacks Ayoze and Macauley King to strongly commit to playing both sides of the ball. I think Indy will attempt to kind of lull Nashville to sleep with possession, and obviously the longer Indy keeps the ball, the less time Nashville attackers will get on it. Look for Indy to come out with a very conservative game plan.
TS: What do you expect from the game, including a prediction?
KJ: I think an early Nashville goal could spell doom for Indy, as Rennie’s system really isn’t designed to come from behind. While the Eleven’s defense is their strong suit, they might also be without starting goalkeeper Evan Newton, who’s listed as questionable. Jordan Farr has been quite magnificent in his absence, but I just don’t see him recording a clean sheet against such a difficult, in-form squad on the road. I think Nashville will sneak in a first-half goal and Indy’s system will struggle to find an equalizer. Once the Eleven are forced to divert course tactically, I think they’ll concede another in the second stanza. I’m going with a 2-0 Nashville SC win.
Follow Kevin on Twitter: @KJboxing.
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